The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has issued a stark warning that up to 1.8 million children could die from AIDS-related causes by 2040 if countries fail to urgently expand HIV services for mothers, children, and adolescents.
In a statement ahead of World AIDS Day, UNICEF raised concern over declining funding and persistent gaps in early diagnosis and treatment, which it says are endangering the lives of millions of young people.
Citing newly released modelling by UNICEF and UNAIDS, the agency noted that if HIV programme coverage drops by 50%, an additional 1.1 million children could contract HIV and another 820,000 could die by 2040 – bringing the total projected impact to over three million infections and 1.8 million deaths among children.
Even with current service levels, nearly two million new infections and almost one million AIDS-related child deaths are projected by 2040, due to the slow pace of progress in fighting the epidemic. UNICEF highlighted that 150,000 adolescents contracted HIV in 2024 alone, pointing to the deepening access gap and the disproportionate impact on girls, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.
As the world marks World AIDS Day on December 1, the World Health Organization (WHO) has called for renewed political will, stronger global collaboration, and human rights-based approaches to HIV/AIDS. Under the 2025 theme, ‘Overcoming Disruption, Transforming the AIDS Response’, WHO warned that the global HIV response is at a critical crossroads, with increasing service disruptions endangering vulnerable communities.
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 40.8 million people were living with HIV in 2024. During the same year, 630,000 individuals died from AIDS-related causes, and 1.3 million new infections were recorded globally. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the hardest-hit region, accounting for nearly 65% of the global HIV population.
According to UNICEF’s Associate Director of HIV and AIDS, Anurita Bains, the world had made significant strides in combating HIV, but sudden global funding cuts have severely disrupted essential services. She warned that the goal of ending AIDS in children is now at serious risk, adding that while many countries acted swiftly to lessen the blow, decades of progress could be reversed if targeted action is not urgently taken – potentially costing millions of young lives.
The Director General of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), Dr. Jean Kaseya, echoed UNICEF’s concerns, stressing that Africa’s health future must be led by African leaders. He called for stronger regional health institutions, local vaccine and drug manufacturing, and sustainable financing models to secure long-term progress.
These concerns are supported by UNICEF’s 2024 global data, which revealed that 120,000 children aged 0–14 contracted HIV last year, while 75,000 died from AIDS-related causes – an average of 200 child deaths daily. Among adolescents aged 15–19, 150,000 were newly infected, with girls accounting for two-thirds of global cases and 85% of new infections in sub-Saharan Africa
UNICEF highlighted that just over half of children living with HIV are currently receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), in contrast to almost 80% of adults. This treatment gap has left an estimated 620,000 children without access to life-saving medication.
In response, the agency called on governments and development partners to safeguard and prioritise HIV services for mothers and children, enhance efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission, scale up paediatric HIV treatment, and integrate HIV care into broader health systems. UNICEF also stressed the need for reliable donor support, urging the adoption of innovative and sustainable financing models to ensure long-term impact.
