The Nigerian Senate has approved the 2025–2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) presented by President Bola Tinubu. This approval comes ahead of the 2025 Appropriation Bill, which the President is set to present to the National Assembly this week. The Senate adopted a report from its joint committees on Finance, National Planning, and Economic Affairs, led by Senator Sani Musa, which laid the groundwork for fiscal projections, including an exchange rate of N1,400/$ and oil benchmark prices set at $75 per barrel for 2025.
In a key development, the Senate has mandated its relevant committees to investigate allegations that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) withheld N8.48 trillion in petrol subsidies. “The committees will also investigate claims by the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) that NNPCL failed to remit $2 billion (N3.6 trillion) in taxes to the federal government,” a Senate resolution noted. The investigation will also focus on the unremitted revenue from the sale of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from 2020 to 2023 and the accuracy of NNPCL’s financial agreements with the Federation Account.
For the MTEF, the Senate projected a significant increase in crude oil production, forecasting a rise from 1.78 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.35 million bpd by 2027. The Senate also projected GDP growth rates of 4.6%, 4.4%, and 5.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with inflation expected to decrease from 15.75% in 2025 to 10.04% by 2027. Despite these positive economic projections, the Senate called for a reduction in petrol prices, particularly following the resumption of operations at the Port Harcourt refinery.
The Senate also approved a N47.9 trillion federal government budget for 2025, with N9.22 trillion allocated for new borrowings, split between domestic and foreign debts. Capital expenditure is projected at N16.48 trillion, while statutory transfers are set at N4.26 trillion and sinking funds at N430.27 billion. Senator Solomon Adeola, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations, emphasized that “the functioning of our refineries and the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative will significantly reduce the demand for foreign exchange.”
During the debate, Senator Jimoh Ibrahim called for the introduction of a transactional tax to target Nigeria’s wealthy individuals, who he believes are not paying their fair share. “The rich need to pay more for their luxury assets,” he said, adding that “about 72% of the population is outside the tax net, and this needs to change.” Senator Aliyu Wadada, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Public Accounts, also questioned the operational capacity of the Port Harcourt refinery, asking, “From the day NNPC said the refinery has commenced operations, how many trucks have lifted products?” These concerns underline the Senate’s ongoing scrutiny of the NNPCL and its fiscal management.
